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***The author of this article is a licensed immigration consultant in Canada, legally allowed to advise & represent on Canadian immigration matters.
How is the newly elected Federal government in Canada, led by Mark Carney, going to affect the immigration pathways leading to Permanent Residency in Canada? Especially the Startup Visa business program and the Quebec Immigrant Investor Program.
Is Alberta really going to separate from Canada? Are all Alberta residents going to receive a new Alberta passport after the referendum?
Yes, the Liberal government has won 170 seats in the Canadian parliament, making it a minority government – just 2 seats shy of a majority. The conservatives have closed in with 143 seats. Obviously, a minority government could mean future elections are closer by in the next 1-2 years – which is what the conservatives are gunning for to have another go at winning the Federal elections. Canada also announces its sovereignty and counter’s US’s 51st state rhetoric – while King Charles plans a visit to Canada this year to emphasize it’s position as a sovereign nation. It’s all a game of political chess. But what has stirred about controversy is Alberta’s rhetoric on separation. We saw this back in the 70’ s and 80’s with Quebec, and now it’s a rerun but now for the western province of Canada.
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Premier Danielle Smith has indicated openness to a 2026 referendum on Alberta's independence if a citizen-led petition garners sufficient support. Recent polls show a growing appetite for separation, with support rising from 25% in March to 36% in May 2025
Bill 54 passed by the Alberta legislature, this bill lowers the threshold for initiating referendums, making it easier for citizen-led initiatives to propose significant constitutional changes .
The newly elected Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, plans to stabilize immigration targets according to housing availability, and public services.
The Canadian government is planning to reduce the total number of temporary residents inside Canada who are on work permits and study permits to a total of 2 million, instead of the 3.02million now inside the country. This means a total reduction of approx. 1 million residents. How will this be done? It doesn’t necessarily mean they will kick out 1 million temporary residents, it just means many people will not have a path to PR, and won’t be able to renew and must either leave, get married or go underground. The lucky few out of these 1 million would be able to convert to PR, but we believe that will be 10% or less of the total number of temporary residents inside Canada.
In addition to making sure the immigration goals of the country stay intact, the government will enforce stricter controls on temporary foreign worker programs (TFW’s) – basically the skilled workers who arrive to Canada with an offer of employment and not a direct PR path
In the skilled immigration PR paths, such as Express Entry, the points threshold will remain high and the focus as everyone should know by now will be pushing newcomers to rural regions, and prioritizing French speaking applicants. Between 8.5% to 12% of all new Canadian permanent residents will be Frech speaking from this year onwards until 2029.
In 2023, 1468 permanent residents were approved to Canada under the Federal SUV program. This number exploded in 2024, whereby the Canadian government admitted approx. 6,099 permanent residents which is a combined statistic of Self-Employed (before it was closed last year) and the SUV program – with close to 5000 of those applications being SUV out of the total figure of 6099. We witnessed this fast-paced processing capacity last year when we reported in our videos and live streams of the ‘load balancing’ of the IRCC processing centres for the Startup Visa program – which included centres across Canada such as Whitehorse, Vancouver, Montreal, Mississauga, and more. However, this was all pulled back by the second half of 2025 – which is why everyone in the SUV pipeline suddenly saw a massive slowdown in their case processing.
The new lower immigration targets across all programs in Canada for 2025 to 2027 means less processing numbers for even the Startup Visa business program, with the 2025 target being reduced to 2,000 instead of 5,000, meaning a 60% reduction. Hence the reason many applicants are seeing the slowdown in their case processing. This number is even lower for 2026 and 2027 – but this has yet to be seen as the government lately has a knack for revising immigration targets every 6 months instead of every 3 years. The bad news is that if you are not applying for priority processing (as per the Designated Organizations labeled priority) you will be in for a long haul for your final PR. The good news is that the Canadian government 6 months ago started a 3-year open work permit program for SUV PR applicants, allowing them to stay inside Canada with their family for the entire duration of the PR process (i.e. the work permit is renewable). An open work permit means the applicants can work for any employer, run their own business, or any combination of the above.
Of course this program (QIIP) was shut down back in November 2019 and it was finally re-opened in January 1st, 2024. Just shows you how slow and inefficient a government can be – even if they know the program will bring in billions in economic loans to the local provincial businesses.
However when the program was re-opened in Jan 2024, due to the many changes such as language requirement of French, higher investment, a new donation amount, mandatory work permit and residency requirement in Quebec before the PR submission, and a secondary school diploma, the program was not popular and remains unpopular – having the lowest number of applications since its inception in 1986. However, as of May 2024, the Quebec government decided NOT to disclose or publish any statistics on the QIIP program – which was a major change since the program has been reporting regularly and active since 1986. This is an obvious move by the government not to be criticized on how few applicants have applied to their new program – and how unpopular it is. Governments have a special skill of sweeping their dirty deeds under the rug.
But the main question is, how will the new Liberal government elected on April 28th,2025 affect the QIIP? That’s not the question you should be asking. The fact is, no matter who is in control of the parliament and government in Canada, the Quebec government will continue to do its thing due to its autonomy within the Canadian immigration system – by having the only passive investment program in the country. The question you should be asking is when will the Quebec government run out of money or need more money for their economic loans and activities – and then look to foreign investors fill up their coiffeurs. That’s the question everyone should be asking. Politicians are not the brightest people on this planet – I think we can all agree on that – no matter which political side you stand on. We expect the Quebec government to announce revisions to the QIIP program sometime in 2026 to re-open the floodgates to investors again and rake in billions in the refundable $1 million investment for 5 years it receives from each applicant, plus the additional $200,000 donation. It’s just a matter of time before the Quebec government wakes up and realizes their opportunity cost. We believe that they will still implement a language requirement, but it could be flexible – such as the spouse or children learning French instead of the main applicant. Time will tell, and we will be reporting this on our YouTube channel in the future when the program is more flexible for potential non-French speaking applicants.
The fact remains, that the only direct Federal PR business immigration program still active is the Startup Visa business program. Created during the previous conservative government back in 2013 and continued & operated by the Liberal government after that. It continues to be supported by both sides of the political spectrum with a strong lobby by Venture capital, angel investors and incubator to keep the program going. Yes, it’s slower – but what are your other feasible options to obtain a PR in Canada?
Canada will continue as a sovereign nation, and its immigration programs will continue – although slower and with less processing power. Everything else is noise.
If you have any questions or comments regarding this article or other topics related to Canadian, EU, American, Canadian, Panamanian, New Zealand, Dubai or other residency programs, reach out to the author of this article here or send him a direct message on LinkedIn.
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