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The Express Entry program is the fastest, most efficient, and cost-effective in all of Canada. But is it the right program for you? Are you stuck in the Express Entry pool for life or is there hope that you will be invited for PR? Express Entry draws are dropping continually in the minimum threshold points since July 2022. What can you expect in the coming months for Express Entry draws, potential changes to the program, and how it can affect your profile in the pool?
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Yes, the latest draw as of the writing of this article is 500 points in Express Entry (all categories). If you remember, we started at 557 back on July 06th of this year (when all the categories such as Federal Skilled Workers, CEC, and FST restarted after hitting a full stop during the COVID-19 pandemic). Every single round of draws has dropped in the minimum CRS score since July, and you don’t need to be a math genius or have a degree in mathematics or statistics to understand this trend. Yes, we and everyone else expect the next draw to drop below 500 CRS score for Express Entry, although only a very slight drop is expected. You might see either 496 or even 498 in the next draw. If IRCC goes lower than this CRS score, then they are very brave. Before the NOC code changes go live on November 16th, 2022, you will most likely see 2 more draws in total all below the 500 marks. This is just an educated guess, and nobody has a crystal ball with Canadian immigration, except maybe the Canadian immigration minister, and even for him that crystal ball is very foggy.
We have now heard that changes to the selection system, whereby the Minister will be able to select candidates in the Express Entry pool by NOC Code, which is expected to start in January of 2023. This is all based on the new National Occupation Classification code system going live later in 2022. It is reasonable to assume that the Express Entry pool will have another silo for occupations in demand, such as healthcare workers, IT workers, truck drivers, caregivers, and so forth.
This will leave fewer and fewer numbers for everyone else (in terms of spots for invitations of PR), so if you have scores between the 300s or mid-400s and are in the Federal Skilled Worker stream in an occupation that is not in high-demand, then you literally have very little chance of being selected in the next 1 to 2 years through Express Entry – this is not true for applicants with Canadian experience, provincial nominations, and high demand occupation NOC codes.
That means that anyone who is not in an in-demand occupation will have a very difficult time ever receiving an Invitation to Apply (ITA) unless they have multiple education, as well as French and English, low age, or are in Canada and under 30, with Canadian education and experience points. If you’re over 40 and just with a bachelor’s degree, and are losing hope, check out our YouTube video on how to claim bonus points in case you are an entrepreneur, click here.
And as you may have heard in the news, the Canadian immigration minister has announced that they also plan to allow self-employed medical doctors to become eligible for Express Entry. As you already should know, self-employed experience inside Canada does not count in the Express Entry program (if you do have questions about self-employed, let us know and we will show you which programs allow self-employed applicants). Most of you may not know this, but in Canada medical doctors are typically contractors for medical clinics and the government. They are not on payroll as they would make more money being an independent contractor than receiving a salary. This was always their dilemma when immigrating to Canada, as they needed to give up their lucrative income and opt for payroll salary to become eligible for Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP) or Express Entry for Canadian PR. With the recent announcement, IRCC plans to rectify this issue and make life easier for medical doctors on work permits, and in case you didn’t know, Canada brings in family doctors from the UK, Ireland, the US, and sometimes Australia.
What about this NOC code system which will affect everyone in the Express Entry pool who has NOT yet received an Invitation to apply for their PR before November 16th, 2022. We’re going to have a dedicated video released on the 16th about this as we need to see it to believe it first in terms of the rollout by Service Canada and IRCC. The new NOC code system is the 2021 version of the National Occupation Classification code system. All programs of IRCC and the PNPs will be updated by 2nd half of November (hopefully – let’s keep our fingers crossed) with the new NOC code eligibility criteria. As you may or may not know or have read about it, the new system is based on the TEER system which is an abbreviation for Training, Education, Experience, and Responsibilities which will be linked to each occupation.
Instead of NOC 0, A, B, C, and D skill levels, it will be TEER 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.
The biggest expected change is certain NOC C level occupations being shifted to a higher TEER, being eligible for Express Entry and some occupations being removed or downgraded.
This will affect all Canadian immigration programs whether you’re suitable for a business/entrepreneur program, Express Entry, Provincial Nominee, Caregiver program, Rural program, Agrifood pilot program, Atlantic Immigration Pilot (AIP), and even LMIA-based Temporary Foreign Worker programs.
Based on this new NOC code, the minister will select specific occupations in the Express Entry pool starting next year, similar to how the provinces select specific occupations in demand from their own pools or Express Entry. This can be both good and bad news for you, as the applicant, depending on which side of the fence you are with your occupation and CRS score.
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